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Is it possible to analyse and make forecasts of the situation at all times? |
On this page we will be summing up our findings from our overview of an integration process that has been developing for nearly 60 years. The most pressing question now is, what course will EU development now take? And it is set against this background that we now ask whether our general overview of EU development so far has provided us with findings and insights that might help us to provide a somewhat well-founded answer to this question?
I personally believe that we have indeed already learned a great deal and that our question-based overview has given us a tool that we can put to use at any time to investigate and, within a certain scope, to arrive at a cautious forecast as to how the EU might develop in the future. I would like to use the following illustration to elaborate this a little further. At the top right of the illustration the central questions regarding the EU have been listed again (1).
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Graphic for explaining EU development |
The answers to these questions can now be derived from the way in which the determining factors that we have identified are aligned (2), the concrete constellations of which determine the characteristics of the EU at any given time (3). If, for example, the factor concerning the rules of the decision-making process would change to the effect that qualified majority voting was introduced in general for decision making, the direction of the EU towards more supranationality would alter, moving the EU more closely to the kind of situation that is familiar to us from domestic politics.
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Application (1): SEA and internal market |
Let us now put the ability of this model to clarify a situation to the test by comparing two different phases from the development of the EU so far, namely the period before the SEA - a time of progress and momentum following a long period of stagnation and the current situation in which progress is not apparent. Can differing alignment of the constellations be used to explain the differences in the pace of development and progress?
Let's take a look at the situation prior to the SEA and the internal market project. From our determining factors it is clear that the conditions for progress during this period were excellent (+). The only negative factor (-) making things far more difficult was the decision-making procedure stemming from the Luxemburg Compromise.
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Application (2): The situation in 2005 following the referendums |
The situation in 2005, however, was almost completely opposite with regards to the inhibitory (-) and favourable (+) influencing factors. Only the exceptionally strong functional constraints and external challenges continue to bring considerable pressure to bear on the EU to change its institutions and alter its ground rules.
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Summary |
This brings us to the end of our journey through the history of the EU and our attempt at explaining the way in which the integration process has developed. I hope that the model that I have just demonstrated provides you with a tool that helps you to explain and understand the events of the past and also to interpret and understand better current and future developments.
In Basic Course 4 that follows we will now be turning our attention to analysing the complicated institutional structure of the EU that has come about because of the processes over the course of time that we have just been investigating. |
